Market Roundup
• UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Feb): 1.0%, 0.7% forecast, 1.0% previous.
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan): 1.2%, –, 4.3% previous.
• Swiss Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan): -1.1%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous.
• HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.6, 49.1 forecast, 48.1 previous.
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.1, 49.9 forecast, 51.2 previous.
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.9, 50.7 forecast, 49.1 previous.
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.8, 50.8 forecast, 49.5 previous.
• S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 54.4, 54.2 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.055% previous
• 14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.008% previous
• 14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.027% previous
•14:30 S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 50.4 previous
•14:30 S&P US Global US Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 51.2 forecast, 52.4 previous.
•14:45 US S&P ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 51.7 forecast, 52.6 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb): 48.1 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb): 60.6, 59.0 previous previous.
•15:00 US S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 46.30 previous.
I•15:00 US SM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Feb): 57.1 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Monday as dollar rose after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran raised the risk of a protracted conflict. The military action resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader and sparked a wave of retaliation across the region from the country, raising the risk of protracted conflict in the Middle East.U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that the conflict could go on for the next four weeks has added to the uncertainty, deepening fears that the violence may spread to other parts of the Middle East. Investors also have to weather a squall of U.S. economic data this week, including the ISM survey of manufacturing, retail sales and the always vital payrolls report. Any weakness could shake confidence in the economy after a disappointing fourth quarter, but would also likely narrow the odds on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1797(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1818(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1694(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1626(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit a 2‑1/2‑month low against the dollar as the Iran conflict sent investors into safe‑haven assets while concerns over the Bank of England’s policy path also weighed on the British currency. Sterling is being affected by domestic politics after a local election in northern England brought a resounding defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour party, raising speculation that the government could move further to the left and increase government spending .Military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran showed no sign of lessening, while Iran responded with missile barrages across the region, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.All eyes were on the Strait of Hormuz where around a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade flows and 20% of its liquefied natural gas. While the vital waterway has not yet been blocked, marine tracking sites showed tankers piling up on either side of the strait wary of attack or maybe unable to get insurance for the voyage. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3439(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3554(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3328 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3250(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar initially dipped on Monday but recovered ground as investors reacted to Iran war. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel launched major military strikes on Iran, killing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in an attack that hit key leadership and military targets.Despite markets showing only a cautious reaction so far, the risk of a prolonged war in the Middle East remains high, with President Donald Trump saying military operations in Iran could continue until all U.S. objectives are achieved.Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to deliver a speech on Tuesday morning, where she’s likely to be asked about the latest conflict in Iran and what it could mean for monetary policy especially after the RBA raised interest rates last month.On the data front, GDP report is due on Wednesday where forecasts are centred on a 0.6% gain, picking up from 0.4% the prior quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7139(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7162(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7037(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose on Monday as military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran sent investors fleeing to the relative safety of the dollar. The weekend U.S.-Iran crisis could complicate the BOJ's rate-hike decision by weighing on growth and pushing up prices through a spike in crude oil prices.The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus in 2024 and raised rates in several steps including in December, on the view Japan was making steady progress in durably achieving its 2% inflation target. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said the central bank is expected to keep raising interest rates but gave no hints on the timing of the next hike, as the Middle East conflict heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks sank to a two-week low on Monday as the Middle East conflict showed no signs of cooling, triggering a broad-based selloff that left most of the sectors in the red.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.48 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 2.59 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 2.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed more than 2% on Monday after U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran intensified with no clear end in sight, heightening geopolitical and economic uncertainty and driving investors toward safe-haven assets.
Spot gold gained 2.1% to $5,388.59 an ounce as of 1255 GMT, after hitting a more than four-week high earlier in the session. The metal touched a peak of $5,594.82 on January 29.
Oil prices jumped, the dollar strengthened, and global equities fell on Monday as the escalating Iran conflict in the Middle East fueled fears of a prolonged crisis, threatening the global economic recovery and potentially reigniting inflation.
Brent crude was last up 8.3% at $78.5 a barrel, though it had briefly topped $82.00 at one stage, while U.S. crude climbed 7.5% to $72.02 per barrel. Safe-haven gold rose 2.1% to $5,389 an ounce .
