Europe Roundup: Sterling little changed against dollar, European shares rise, Gold gains,Oil falls,September 16th, 2026

Market Roundup

• UK CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.1% forecast, 2.9% previous

•UK PPI Input (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.6% forecast, -0.8% previous

•UK CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous

•UK CPIH (YoY) (Aug) 3.3%, 3.1% previous

•UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.5% previous

•UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Aug) 2.7%, 2.7% previous

•UK PPI Input (YoY) (Aug) 6.1%, 5.4% forecast, 5.8% previous

•UK PPI Output (YoY) (Aug) 3.7%, 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous

•UK RPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.6%, 0.6% previous

•UK RPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast, 3.2% previous

•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous

•UK CPI, n.s.a (Aug) 143.60, 142.90 previous

•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.3%, 3.1% previous

•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous

•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous

•UK PPI Output (MoM) (Aug) 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous

•Euro zone Wages (YoY) (Q2) 3.00%, 3.40% previous

•Euro zone Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%, -0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous

•Euro zone Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q2) 3.10%, 3.00% forecast, 3.20% previous

•Euro zone Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul) 0.0%, -0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

•12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.6% forecast, -0.3% previous

•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 0.8% forecast, -0.6% previous

•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous

•12:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.5% forecast, -1.3% previous

•12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous

•12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Aug) -0.2% previous

•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 5.01% previous

•12:30 US Export Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 8.2% previous

•12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) (Aug) 5.9% previous

•12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) -4.7% forecast, 18.5% previous

•14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul) 0.7% forecast, -0.4% previous

•14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul) 0.6% forecast, 0.0% previous

•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Sep) 34 forecast, 35 previous

•14:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.600M forecast, -0.391M previous

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

• No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The Fed is due to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) after concluding its two-day meeting. Financial markets are heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark rate to a 3.75%-4.00% range, along with signals on further tightening.On the geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia’s air defences intercepted and destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca before it entered prohibited airspace over the holy city, a spokesperson for the Saudi-led military coalition in Yemen said, as fighting continued to spread across the Middle East. The euro was last down 0.07% against the dollar at $1.1539.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1603(Sep 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1627(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1516(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1459(July 3st low).

GBP/USD: The British pound was little changed against the ‌dollar on Wednesday as underlying readings of UK inflation held steady in August, even as headline consumer price inflation accelerated to a five-month high.The headline consumer price index rose to 3.1% in August ​compared with a year ago, its highest level since March, official figures ​showed just a day before the Bank of England's policy decision.But core ⁠inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy prices, held at ​2.6% for the fourth month in a row.Markets are now turning their attention ‌to ⁠the BoE's policy announcement on Thursday, when they are expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3506(Daily high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3454(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3424(50%fib).

 AUD/USD: The Australian dollar was little changed on Wednesday as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s widely expected rate hike. The Fed is due to announce its policy decision at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) following the conclusion of its two-day meeting. Financial markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark rate to a 3.75%-4.00% range, with investors also watching for signals on the path of further tightening.Oil prices remained elevated above $100 a barrel, with WTI around $105-$106 after disruptions to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline raised concerns over global supply routes. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Michele Bullock and other senior officials are scheduled to appear before Australia’s House Economics Committee on September 18, potentially providing a near-term catalyst for the Australian dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7166(SAM20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7238(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7114 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07094(Lower BB)

USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar eased slightly against the yen on Wednesday as traders remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s crucial interest-rate decision later in the day. Markets are pricing in around a 92% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike, reflecting expectations that persistent inflation pressures will encourage policymakers to maintain a relatively hawkish stance.Much of the expected Fed tightening appears to be priced into current market valuations, potentially limiting further dollar gains unless the FOMC signals a more aggressive path for future rate increases. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is also expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high on Friday and signal further increases in borrowing costs as major central banks respond to persistent inflation pressures fueled by surging oil prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.75(38.2%), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.28(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  154.95(Sep 24th low ) a break below could take the pair towards 154.00 (Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European shares ​edged higher on Wednesday after two sessions of declines as a pause in the recent ‌rally in oil prices restored risk appetite ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down  by 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax  was up  by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC was up  by 0.64 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold ​prices rose over 1% on Wednesday as the dollar weakened and oil prices slipped, ‌while investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates for further direction.

Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,346.30 per ounce as of 1034 GMT after touching a more than one-month low on ​Monday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 1.3% to $4,387.60.

Oil ​prices fell on Wednesday as reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes via Oman eased concerns about the ‌scale of Middle East supply disruptions, while European diesel prices hovered near a record high.

Brent crude futures were down $1.69, or 1.55%, at $107.06 a barrel by 1128 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down $2.6, or 2.46%, at $103.23 a barrel.