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Market Roundup
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.0%, -0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Aug) 0.1%, 1.4% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Aug) 1.6%, 0.6% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Aug) -1.5%, 0.3% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) 46.3, 45.8 forecast, 51.5 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.6%, 4.6% forecast, 4.0% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 48.1, 47.8 forecast, 51.7 previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.3% previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (Sep) 50.9, 50.9 forecast, 51.9 previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 5.0%, 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous
•Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jul) -5.14B, -0.37B previous
•Canada Budget Balance (Jul) -4.77B, 0.99B previous
•US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 455, 453 forecast, 452 previous
•US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 599, 595 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro gained modestly on Friday as investors remained cautious about developments in the Middle East and surging bond yields.Negotiators are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said this week.Euro zone government bond yields were on track for their seventh consecutive weekly rise as crude prices remained near $100 a barrel and increasingly hawkish signals from central banks pushed up expectations for policy rates.Meanwhile, German consumer sentiment weakened more sharply than expected heading into October, as rising energy prices soured households' income outlook, a survey showed.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1348(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1308(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged higher on Friday as advancing US-Iran diplomatic talks in New York lifted sentiment and oil prices fell on ceasefire hopes.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking to the media on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, said Tehran wanted Washington to return to the Memorandum of Understanding "before the midterms."U.S. and Iranian negotiators have been exploring a phased framework involving Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade. Britain's currency was on track to fall 1.2% against the dollar in its biggest one-week fall since May, after declining 1% the previous week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened on Friday as falling oil prices weighed on the commodity-linked currency. Brent crude prices fell more than 1% as expectations grew that negotiations between Iran and U.S. mediators could lead to a meaningful resolution of the six-month-old conflict.On the data front, new orders for U.S.-manufactured capital goods rose more than expected in August, while the previous month’s figure was revised sharply higher, pointing to another quarter of solid business investment as companies ramp up spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure.In a separate report, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index edged up to 48.1 from 47.8, indicating a modest improvement in consumer confidence.Meanwhile, traders see a 65% chance that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its October meeting as policymakers seek to contain inflation.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4183(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4202(23.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4248(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4045 (38.2%fib).
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday as the yen strengthened after Japan stepped up warnings over potential currency intervention.The move came after Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said U.S. President Donald Trump had raised concerns about yen weakness during his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this week.Katayama said the comments reaffirmed the shared U.S.-Japan stance that underpinned their coordinated intervention in July. She added that she and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would remain in close contact as policymakers increased warnings over renewed yen weakness.Despite Friday’s gains, the yen remained on track for a second consecutive weekly decline, with markets earlier viewing the Bank of Japan’s rate hike to a 31-year high and its latest guidance as insufficiently hawkish. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.83(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.71(Sep24th low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.60(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks ended a three-week decline as weaker oil prices supported sentiment, while Middle East risks and surging bond yields remained a concern.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.10 percent, Germany's Dax ended flat, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.14 percent.
Wall Street ended higher on Friday, lifted by Microsoft and other AI-related technology stocks, while elevated oil prices and rising Treasury yields kept investors cautious.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.17 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.58% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.32% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday but were headed for a weekly loss, as concerns about sticky inflation, hawkish signals from Federal Reserve policymakers, and higher US Treasury yields dented bullion's appeal.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,282.98 per ounce by 2:05 p.m. ET (1805 GMT). Prices were headed for a weekly loss, down about 2.1% so far. US gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $4,321.20.
Oil prices fell about 2% on Friday as hopes for a U.S.-Iran truce grew and a possible U.S. ban on diesel exports weighed on the market, while Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia raised supply concerns.
Brent futures fell $2.28, or 2.1%, to settle at $104.32 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.20, or 2.3%, to settle at $92.41.
