Market Roundup
• Italy Services PMI (Feb): 52.3, 52.6 forecast, 52.9 previous.
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Feb): 52.1, 51.4 previous.
•HCOB France Services PMI (Feb): 49.6, 49.6 forecast, 49.6 previous.
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Feb): 49.9, 49.9 forecast, 49.9 previous.
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb): 53.5, 53.4 forecast, 53.4 previous.
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb): 53.2, 53.1 forecast, 53.1 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb): 51.9, 51.8 forecast, 51.8 previous.
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb): 51.9, 51.9 forecast, 51.9 previous.
•Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jan): 5.1%, 5.6% forecast, 5.5% previous.
•Italian GDP (YoY) (Q4): 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb): 53.7, 53.9 forecast, 53.9 previous.
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Feb): 53.9, 53.9 forecast, 53.9 previous.
•EU Unemployment Rate (Jan): 6.1%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous.
•EU PPI (YoY) (Jan): -2.1%, -2.7% forecast, -2.0% previous.
•EU PPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.7%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q4): -0.1% forecast, 0.9% previous.
•14:30 US Services PMI (Feb): 45.80 previous.
•14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Feb): 52.3 forecast, 52.3 previous.
•15:00 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb): 52.3 forecast, 52.3 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb): 53.5 forecast, 53.8 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb): 50.3 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb): 66.6 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Feb): 53.1 previous.
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Feb): 57.4 previous.
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: 3.000M forecast, 15.989M previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•15:30 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
EUR/USD : The euro rebounded against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed Eurozone business activity accelerated in February.Final survey data from S&P Global showed private sector growth strengthened, with the HCOB Composite Output Index rising to a three-month high of 51.9 from 51.3 in January, matching the flash estimate. The index has stayed above the 50 mark for 14 consecutive months, signaling continued expansion.Growth was broad-based across manufacturing and services, with the Services PMI climbing to 51.9 from 51.6 previously. Following the data, the euro edged up 0.2% to $1.16135 after earlier hitting its weakest level since late November.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1697(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1782(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1529(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1499(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Tuesday as traders capitalized on a retreating dollar, though caution persisted amid uncertainty over the long-term economic impact of the Middle East conflict.With investors focused on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and surging global energy prices, UK markets showed little reaction to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ budget update.The sharp rise in oil and natural gas prices since last week has pressured energy-importing currencies, leaving the euro, pound, and yen under strain. Sterling rose 0.33% to $1.34, lifting off Tuesday's two-month low of $1.3255. It was steady against the euro, which traded at 86.97 pence . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3459(Jan 2nd low).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3248(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3183(Dec 2nd low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Wednesday as investors assessed Middle East war risks against stronger-than-expected domestic growth data.Markets remained cautious after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran fueled inflation fears and boosted safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar. However, upbeat GDP figures lent support to the Aussie.Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the economy grew 0.8% in Q4, above the previous quarter’s upwardly revised 0.5%. Annual growth accelerated to 2.6%, the fastest pace since early 2023, increasing expectations that interest rates may need to stay higher to curb inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and BOJ Governor Ueda . Finance Minister Katayama reiterated that authorities are closely watching foreign exchange market movements and remain prepared to take appropriate steps if excessive volatility is observed.Traders had been waiting for verbal intervention signals, which often trigger short-term yen buying flows. Such expectation helped push the yen stronger during Asian trading session.Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed that the central bank remains committed to gradual monetary tightening and may continue hiking rates, particularly while monitoring geopolitical risks from Middle East conflicts that could influence inflation dynamics. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
Spanish stocks fell on Wednesday after new trade-embargo threats from the White House, while other regional markets edged higher following a global sell-off that pushed equities to over one-month lows on fears of a wider Middle East conflict.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.82 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.84 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose 2% on Wednesday, rebounding from a more-than-one-week low hit in the previous session, as the dollar eased and escalating Middle East tensions boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold gained 2.2% to $5,198.58 per ounce by 1017 GMT, after falling more than 4% on Tuesday.U.S. gold futures for April delivery added 1.7% to $5,211.20.
Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, though gains eased after President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent rose $1.1, or 1.4%, to $82.52 a barrel by 1143 GMT, after closing on Tuesday at its highest since January 2025.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $74.96, after settling at its highest since June.
