Market Roundup
• German Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan) -2.3% ,-2.3% previous
• German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan)1.1%, 0.6% forecast,-0.1% previous
• French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%, forecast 0.4%, previous -0.5%
• French CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.7%, forecast 0.5%, -0.3% previous
• French GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.1%, forecast 1.1%, 0.9% previous
• French HICP (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, forecast 0.5%, -0.3% previous
• French CPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.0%, forecast 0.8%, 0.3% previous
• French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4) -0.1%, forecast -0.1%, -0.1% previous
• PPI (YoY) (Jan) -2.30%, -1.90% previous
• French HICP (YoY) (Feb) 1.1%, forecast 0.7%, s 0.4% previous
• German Unemployment Rate (Feb) 6.3%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
• German Unemployment Change (Feb) 1K, 2K forecast,1K previous
• German Unemployment n.s.a. (Feb)3.070M ,3.085M previous
• German Unemployment (Feb) 2.977M, 2.976M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as investors digested key German inflation data at the end of a busy week. German inflation unexpectedly eased to 2% in February, pushed down by falling energy costs, provisional data showed on Friday, following a softening of price growth across the euro zone and expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged.Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation, which is European Union-harmonised, to remain unchanged from the 2.1% reported for January. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, stayed at 2.5 percent.Other sets of economic indicators released on Friday offered a mixed picture for Germany, with unemployment remaining above the 3 million mark as years of stagnation in Europe's largest economy took a toll..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1821(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1872(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1760(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1737(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Friday an election in northern England brought a resounding defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour party.The loss of one of Labour's safest seats, in the biggest electoral test in almost a year, piles further pressure on Starmer to prove that he should keep his job following weeks of political turmoil and calls for him to resign.The Green Party's Hannah Spencer won the contest for the vacant parliamentary seat of Gorton and Denton, with Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK party coming second, and Labour pushed into third place. The defeat comes after Starmer faced the most dangerous moment of his premiership this month when some of his lawmakers said he should resign over his decision to appoint Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, despite his links to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Friday as Australian dollar was supported by growing expectations of further OCR rate hikes.A high reading on inflation this week has left markets implying an 80% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the 3.85% cash rate a quarter point in May.The next major data point is gross domestic product for the December quarter on March 4, where analysts look for a rise of 0.6%, up from 0.4% the previous quarter.Annual growth is seen holding at 2.1%, underpinned by a pickup in consumer spending and business investment.Market focus now shifts to speeches next week from RBA officials Michele Bullock, Sarah Hunter, and Andrew Hauser, which could provide further guidance on the policy outlook Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7136(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7161(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7053(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as the Japanese yen recovered after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said decisions on potential rate hikes at the March and April meetings would depend on incoming economic data. Overall market moves were muted, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts.Ueda reiterated that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if Japan makes progress toward its economic and inflation targets. Earlier reports indicated Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had expressed reservations about further rate hikes during a meeting with Ueda last week.The yen strengthened 0.12% against the dollar to 156.15, after touching a two-week low of 156.82 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares hit a fresh record on Friday and were on track for an eighth consecutive monthly gain, supported by strong corporate earnings even as tariff risks and AI-related disruption concerns continued to weigh on sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Friday and was on track for a seventh consecutive monthly gain, supported by geopolitical tensions after U.S.–Iran nuclear talks were extended, while lower U.S. Treasury yields also boosted bullion.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $5,227.62 an ounce by 09:35 a.m. ET (1435 GMT). Prices climbed 7.4% so far in February.
Oil prices rose about 3% on Friday as traders remained on alert for potential supply disruptions after the United States and Iran extended nuclear talks.
Brent crude futures advanced by $2.09, or around 3%, to $72.84 a barrel by 1422 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $2.33, or around 3.6%, at $67.54.
