Market Roundup
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 3.1%, 2.2% previous
•Spain 12-Month Letras Auction 2.663%, 2.500% previous
•Spain 6-Month Letras Auction 2.496%, 2.385% previous
•US Exports (Jun) 314.70B, 317.70B previous
•US Imports (Jun) 388.00B, 395.30B previous
•Canada Trade Balance (Jun) 3.86B, 3.00B forecast, 3.70B previous
•Canada Imports (Jun) 73.63B, 73.49B previous
•Canada Exports (Jun) 77.49B, 77.19B previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 8.7%, 8.3% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 53.5, 52.2 forecast, 53.0 previous
•US JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) 7.359M, 7.440M forecast, 7.537M previous
•US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jun) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -1.1% previous
•US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Jun) -0.4%, 2.0% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jun) 0.7%, 0.6% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jun) 0.5%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Aug) 45.1, 47.5 forecast, 45.5 previous
•US All Car Sales (Jul) 2.70M, 2.69M previous
•US All Truck Sales (Jul) 13.62M, 13.87M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 14:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
• 14:30 US 52-Week Bill Auction 3.860 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as concerns persisted that Middle Eastern supply could remain vulnerable, with a diplomatic breakthrough in the U.S.-Iran conflict still appearing elusive.Markets have repeatedly swung between optimism and pessimism since the conflict began in late February, as both sides have struggled to reach a mutually acceptable resolution.Looking ahead, investors awaited awaiting a series of U.S. labour market reports this week for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Key data releases include job openings later on Tuesday, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : The pound edged higher on Tuesday as investors awaited greater clarity on potential U.S.-Iran peace talks while remaining alert to the risk of further intervention in the Japanese yen, which could trigger broader volatility across global financial markets.Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place or had been planned, prompting a modest rebound in oil prices. Brent crude rose around 3% on Tuesday to $86.10 a barrel.Investor attention is also firmly on Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for July, a key release that could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path if the labour market data surprises to the upside or downside.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected consumer spending data indicated demand remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs, leaving room for another interest rate hike if necessary.Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed household spending rose 0.8% in June, boosted by stronger sales of new electric vehicles amid elevated petrol prices.The increase in household spending came despite weak consumer sentiment, which has remained subdued following the Reserve Bank of Australia's three interest rate hikes this year.Markets have largely ruled out the possibility of an RBA rate hike at next week's policy meeting, with expectations for a September increase also remaining minimal. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6917 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6899(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher but gains were limited on Tuesday as investors remained wary of further yen-buying intervention.Traders continue to monitor for any signs of Japan-U.S. coordinated foreign exchange intervention.The Japanese yen surged as much as 5% over the previous three trading sessions after Japan confirmed it had carried out a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention with the United States on Friday.Meanwhile, Japan's Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi said on Tuesday that the impact of higher costs stemming from the Middle East conflict has yet to significantly feed through to consumer prices, suggesting inflationary pressures remain contained for now. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.3` (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.88.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.25(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to a record high on Tuesday, supported by gains in technology stocks and a fresh round of corporate earnings, as investors shifted their attention away from lingering concerns over the U.S.-Iran conflict and its potential impact on global energy markets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.66 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.35 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of further U.S. interest rate hikes, while investors awaited additional economic data for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.
Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,078.10 per ounce by 09:29 a.m. EDT (1329 GMT), while U.S gold futures gained 1.1% to $4,134.60.
Oil prices tumbled as much as 5% on Tuesday to their lowest level in three weeks after comments from Qatar and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict, potentially easing supply concerns by improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Front-month Brent futures fell $3.95, or 4.72%, to $79.82 a barrel by 1340 GMT after hitting a session high of $86.33. Prices fell to as low as $79.73 a barrel at one point, or down around 5%.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $4.32, or 5.38%, at $76.02 a barrel after touching a session high of $82.33.
