Market Roundup
• French Exports (Jan): 53.4B, 53.0B previous.
• French Trade Balance (Jan): -1.8B, -5.2B forecast, -4.3B previous.
• French Imports (Jan): 55.3B, 57.3B previous.
• French Current Account (Jan): 2.10B, 0.10B previous.
• Italian PPI YoY (Jan): -1.6%, -1.4% previous.
• Italian PPI MoM (Jan): 1.5%, -0.7% previous.
• Greek HICP YoY (Feb): 3.1%, 2.9% previous.
• Greek Industrial Production YoY (Jan): 5.3%, 4.0% previous.
• Greek CPI YoY (Feb): 2.7%, 2.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (Feb) 3.89M forecast, 3.91M previous.
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) -8.4% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro steadied on Tuesday as investors balanced hopes of de-escalation in the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran with concerns that such optimism may be premature. Donald Trump said the war could end sooner than initially expected but warned of intensified attacks if Tehran blocks oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices plummeted on Tuesday after soaring to a more than three-year high in the previous session as U.S. President Donald Trump predicted the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies.Meanwhile, G7 energy ministers are expected to discuss how to tackle soaring energy prices in a call on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1574(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1608(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1509(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1474(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns for Britain's import-dependent economy. Given the far-reaching implications for the global economy, investors remain on edge and are scanning for even the smallest signs of relief in the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran.However, conflicting signals from Washington and Tehran prompted analysts to urge caution.While U.S. President Donald Trump hinted that the war may end sooner than his initial timeline, Iran's Revolutionary Guards were defiant, saying they would not let oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz until attacks from the U.S. and Israel stop.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3328(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3489(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3118(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3125(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Tuesday as markets recalibrated after sharp volatility the previous day. Investor sentiment improved after Donald Trump said the conflict with Iran could be nearing an end and suggested easing sanctions on Russia to help stabilize global energy markets.His comments helped calm markets that had been rattled by fears of escalating geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. However, uncertainty remains high as it is still unclear how quickly the situation can realistically de-escalate. Meanwhile, oil prices have sharply reversed, giving up all the gains recorded earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7030(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7137(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Tuesday as concerns on inflation eased as oil prices pulled back amid receding expectations of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.Trump said the US military operation in Iran is nearing its conclusion and running well ahead of the initial four- to five-week estimated timeframe.On the data front, Japan's economy grew faster than initially estimated in the October-December period from the previous quarter, revised gross domestic product (GDP) data showed on Tuesday.The revised figure released by the Cabinet Office showed the economy expanded an annualised 1.3% in the fourth quarter, compared with the initially estimated 0.2%. Economists' median forecast was for a 1.2% growth.Without annualisation, GDP grew 0.3%, matching the median forecast for a 0.3% expansion and compared with the initial estimate of a 0.1% rise. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.29(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stock markets firmed on Tuesday, mirroring gains in Asian equities, after Donald Trump said the conflict in Iran could be over very soon.
At GMT (13:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.25 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.99 percent, France’s CAC finished was upby 1.40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Tuesday, buoyed by a pause in the dollar’s rally and easing inflation concerns as oil prices pulled back amid receding expectations of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
Spot gold was up 1.2% at $5,200.29 per ounce as of 9:11 a.m. ET (1311 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up 2.1% at $5,210.70..
Oil prices plunged 7% on Tuesday after hitting a more than three-year high in the previous session, as Donald Trump said the war in the Middle East could end soon, easing concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies.
Brent futures were down $7.15, or 7.2%, at $91.81 a barrel by 1307 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $6.26, or 6.6%, at $88.51 a barrel. Both contracts fell as much as 11% earlier in the day
