Market Roundup
• China New Loans (Mar): 2,990.0B, 3,465.0B forecast, 900.0B previous
• China M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Mar): 8.5%, 8.9% forecast, 9.0% previous
• China Total Social Financing (Mar): 5,230.0B, 5,400.0B forecast, 2,380.0B previous
• China Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) (Mar): 5.8%, 5.9% forecast, 6.0% previous
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction: 2.517%, 2.270% previous
• German 6-Month Bubill Auction: 2.310%, 2.121% previous
• Canada Building Permits (Feb MoM): -8.4%, -0.4% forecast, 3.5% previous.
• France 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.634%, 2.694% previous.
• France 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.248%, 2.253% previous.
• France 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.448%, 2.509% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (Mar) 4.07M forecast, 4.09M previous.
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)1.7% previous.
• 16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.635% previous.
• 16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.615% previous.
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as dollar firmed after peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down and as the U.S. Navy prepared a blockade of Iranian ports.President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran failed to lead to a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire. The U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces would begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday. The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1698, while the British pound GBP= fell 0.2% to $1.3439, although both were above earlier lows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1741(April high)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell against a broadly stronger dollar on Monday after talks between Iran and the U.S. broke down and the U.S. Navy said it would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices surging.President Donald Trump said on Sunday the U.S. Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz after the two sides failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardising a fragile two-week ceasefire. U.S. Central Command said forces would begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday.Sterling has tended to suffer against the dollar when tensions between Washington and Tehran flare, given Britain's dependence on energy imports and the economy's sensitivity to higher fuel costs. The war in the Middle East has sent energy prices sharply higher, stoking inflation concerns and adding to worries about global growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3510(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3373(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3220(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped early Monday but later recovered from a sharper drop seen soon after the open, as market volatility stayed elevated. Risk sentiment weakened after U.S.-Iran peace talks broke down over the weekend, raising concerns of renewed conflict and boosting demand for safe-haven assets, weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.Tensions escalated further after the U.S. signaled a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices sharply higher, with WTI crude jumping over 8%. This added to global inflation concerns and dampened investor confidence.Despite the rebound, upside in AUD/USD may remain capped, with resistance likely near the 0.7040 level Monday’s opening range and a key short-term barrier. Investors will also focus on comments from RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, scheduled to speak in New York later Monday, for clues on the policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7068 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7093(April 11 t high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6980(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6896(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Monday as unresolved geopolitical tensions following the failure of U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend continued to underpin safe-haven demand. However, market sentiment remained cautious amid uncertainty over further developments.Concerns escalated after the U.S. military announced plans to begin a blockade of maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, a move that threatens to derail the fragile two-week ceasefire and intensify the ongoing conflict. The situation has heightened volatility across global markets, particularly in energy and currency trading. The war in the Middle East has pushed energy prices sharply higher, stoking worries about higher inflation and lower global growth. Brent crude futures are up about 7% on Monday to around $102 per barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.86(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.26(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.78(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Monday as expectations of a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict dimmed following the breakdown of U.S.-Iran negotiations and Washington's decision to impose a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.64 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.44 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were subdued on Monday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar after U.S.-Iran talks collapsed over the weekend, heightening inflation concerns and dimming prospects for future interest rate cuts.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,728.59 per ounce as of 9:23 a.m. ET (1323 GMT), after hitting its lowest since April 7 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.7% to $4,752.20.
Oil climbed above $100 on Monday as U.S. plans to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply fears following the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks.
Brent crude futures gained $6.52, or 6.9%, to $101.72 a barrel by 1306 GMT after settling 0.75% lower on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up around $7, or 7.2%, at $103.55 after a 1.33% loss in the previous session.
