A Deutsche Bank forecast cited only by FXStreet puts UK inflation at 3.80% in October, after energy-price and tax changes took effect, offering a fresh signal ahead of official data next week.
FXStreet reported Wednesday, Nov. 11, that Deutsche Bank economists Sanjay Raja and Maui Brennan projected annual headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation at 3.80%, core inflation at 2.87% and services inflation at 3.87%. The outlet said the economists saw energy and tobacco as the strongest sources of upward pressure, while food and service costs were expected to rise less.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported September CPI inflation at 3.5%, up from 3.1% in August. Core CPI was 2.8% and services CPI was 3.7%, compared with 2.6% and 3.4%, respectively, in August.
The Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) set the energy price cap at an equivalent £1,723 a year from Oct. 1 through Dec. 31 for average-use direct-debit customers in England, Scotland and Wales, a 4% increase from the previous period. The figure reflects capped unit rates and standing charges; it is not a fixed bill for every household. ONS data put September petrol at 169.5 pence per liter, its highest price since August 2022, and diesel at 192.5 pence, its highest since July 2022.
HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) changed tobacco duty rates on Oct. 1, adding £1.21 in duty to a packet of 20 cigarettes. A new vaping-products duty of £2.20 per 10 milliliters also took effect. Manufacturers, importers and approved warehousekeepers initially pay the vaping duty, and HMRC says passing that cost on to retailers and consumers is a commercial decision.
Bank of England minutes said direct energy costs added about 1 percentage point to September’s CPI rate, mostly through fuels. The bank’s November staff projection put inflation at around 4.5% in the first quarter of 2027 and around 5% in the second. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on Nov. 4, with its next policy decision scheduled for Dec. 17.
ONS is scheduled to publish October inflation data Wednesday, Nov. 18, at 7 a.m. GMT.
