South Korea’s exports surged in October, and FXStreet reported that OCBC strategists expect moderate won appreciation against the U.S. dollar through the end of 2027.
FXStreet reported Monday that OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong forecast USD/KRW at 1,320 at end-2026 and 1,260 at end-2027. Because the quote measures won per U.S. dollar, a lower figure means the dollar buys fewer won. The targets are absent from OCBC’s publicly available Nov. 2 Daily Treasury Outlook.
FXStreet said the strategists pointed to export resilience and chip demand tied to AI investment as supports for the currency. They also cited global risk sentiment and portfolio flows as risks to a steady recovery, which they described as potentially uneven.
OCBC’s Nov. 2 outlook put the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at about 4.93% on Friday. It also said the Fed had held its policy rate at 3.75% to 4%, with two dissenters favoring an increase.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said October exports reached $115.28 billion, up 93.7% year over year and the second-highest monthly total on record. Semiconductor exports contributed $56.44 billion after rising 259.4%. The ministry linked strong chip prices and volumes to continued AI investment by global technology companies.
Reuters reported that October had more working days than the year-earlier comparison because Chuseok fell in a different month in 2025. After adjustment for workdays, daily exports averaged $5.24 billion, 76% above the year-earlier level, the ministry said.
Energy imports climbed 63.1% year over year to $16.49 billion. Crude oil’s import value increased 51.9% as its unit price rose 62%, while import volume fell 6.3%. The higher crude bill therefore came alongside lower imported volumes.
Exports totaled $930 billion in the first 10 months of 2026. The ministry expected the annual total to reach $1 trillion during November.
