Facing Chinese aggression, Japan requires foreign policy continuity

The relationship between Japan and China is one of the most important and volatile in the Asia-Pacific, so the recent incursion of two Chinese coast guard vessels into the Japanese waters surrounding the contested Senkaku/ Diaoyu islands makes for bad news. A geopolitical hotspot, the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands are Japanese administered but also claimed by China, which makes this kind of event far from unusual. However, at a time when China is full of confidence in the run-up to the Chinese Communist Party’s 100th anniversary on July 1, Beijing’s actions around the contested Pacific islands have acquired a distinctively provocative note.

Indeed, the China Coast Guard is marking a new record of 112 consecutive incursions into Senkaku islands waters since early June. Chinese vessels had entered the contiguous zone every day since mid-February, beating the previous record of 111 consecutive entries between April and August 2020. And more is yet to come following the enactment of a new law in February his year which vastly expanded the powers of the Chinese coast guard to form a quasi-military organization.

Add to this the increasing Chinese aggression toward Taiwan – where Beijing has backed up its ever more belligerent rhetoric about “reunification” with the Mainland by sending 28 combat aircraft into Taiwanese airspace earlier this month – and it’s evident that China under Xi Jinping is testing Japan’s resolve to an unprecedented extent, with far-reaching consequences for Tokyo’s role in the East Asian security architecture.

The value of personal diplomacy

Japan has reacted to this increased threat by, quite rightly, strengthening ties with its most important ally, the United States, to project strength, deter Chinese aggression and secure Japan’s leading role in what is going to be the defining region of this century. A principal architect of the US-Japan alliance in recent times – pivotal for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific – has been Shigeru Kitamura, secretary general of the National Security Secretariat (NSS).

Under Yoshihide Suga, Kitamura has long emphasized the importance of the bilateral alliance with Washington, and has served as the primary point of contact between top US officials and Suga when he came into office last year, as well as for new US President Biden at a time when Washington is pushing for a unified global front against China. Following a state visit of PM Suga to Biden in Washington in April 2021, both leaders announced the “partnership for a new era” in what can be considered a commitment to continuity and mutual support in the task of managing China’s rise.

Given this emphasis on continuity and unity, it’s no surprise that unconfirmed reports of Kitamura’s replacement from the NSS were met with skepticism by political observers, considering that such a reshuffle would come at highly inopportune time for Japan. An experienced national security official, Kitamura has long helped shape Japan’s security environment, including in regard to stronger ties with NATO, Japanese commitment to Taiwan’s independence as well as North Korean denuclearization.

A show of resolve

Because of this central role, Kitamura’s departure would constitute a sensitive blow to Japanese diplomatic efforts – especially if it’s unclear what angle his supposed successor, Vice Foreign Minister Takeo Akiba, will take. Indeed, a much-trusted official like Kitamura can make all the difference in the geopolitical flexing of power, as was showcased by the US-Japan statement on Taiwan in April in response to Chinese flybys over the island state. According to data compiled by Nikkei, the statement led to a sharp drop in Chinese military activity in the Taiwan Strait in what is rightly considered a credible statement of resolve at a crucial moment.

So far, China’s actions have created a lot of heat but little light. But they are signs of times to come if Japan and its allies don’t draw red lines into the sand. Tangible successes such as ever-stronger ties to Washington and effective strategic signaling in the case of Taiwan mean that Japan is asserting its own interests as a security player in the region.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or the management of EconoTimes