BOJ Governor Ueda Highlights Uncertainty Over Future Interest Rate Hikes 
Bank of Korea Holds Interest Rates Steady as Weak Won Limits Policy Flexibility 
Kazakhstan Central Bank Holds Interest Rate at 18% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
BOJ Seen Moving Toward December Rate Hike as Yen Slides 
Brazil Central Bank Plans $2 Billion Dollar Auctions to Support FX Liquidity 
New RBNZ Governor Anna Breman Aims to Restore Stability After Tumultuous Years 
Indonesia Aims to Strengthen Rupiah as Central Bank Targets 16,400–16,500 Level 
Best Gold Stocks to Buy Now: AABB, GOLD, GDX 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 13th May)
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 86.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 23.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 74.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 8.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 53.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 14.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 40.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 45 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 22.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 41.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 29.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have significantly eased, as several FOMC member hinting at rate cuts going ahead.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 70.3 percent probability, compared to 57.3 percent last week, and 58.3 percent in the week before that.
