RBA Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points in February, ANZ Forecast Says 
Bank of England Expected to Hold Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Remains Elevated 
Federal Reserve Faces Subpoena Delay Amid Investigation Into Chair Jerome Powell 
Japan Declines Comment on BOJ’s Absence From Global Support Statement for Fed Chair Powell. Source: Asturio Cantabrio, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
New York Fed President John Williams Signals Rate Hold as Economy Seen Strong in 2026 
Bank of Korea Expected to Hold Interest Rates as Weak Won Limits Policy Easing 
FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 13th May)
- June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 86.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.9 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 23.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 74.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 8.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 37.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 53.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 14.6 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 40.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 45 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
- December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 22.2 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, 41.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 29.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
The probability is suggesting,
- Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have significantly eased, as several FOMC member hinting at rate cuts going ahead.
- The market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 70.3 percent probability, compared to 57.3 percent last week, and 58.3 percent in the week before that.
