Fed gives "some" clue to lift-off

The risk of the Fed tweaking its forward guidance was realized, at least in a tiny way. The now well-worn lift-off guidance was augmented with one word, "some", as in the Committee will raise rates when "it has seen some further improvement in the labor market". The "some" speaks to a more limited amount of labor market data required as evidence. 

The meaningful changes in the economic assessment include, Housing has shown "additional improvement" vs "some" before. There was "declining" unemployment vs the rate "remained steady" before. The reference to "energy prices appear to have stabilized", in the context of continued sub-par inflation performance, was dropped. 

The recent decline in energy prices appears to be on the Fed's radar, but the blip is smaller than the ones emitted by mounting housing and labor market momentum. The vote was 10-0; Richmond Fed President Lacker did not dissent. 

"As far as lift-off is concerned "SOME" may mean "SEPT". Next week's employment report could be a game changer in the market's mind", says BMO Economics.