First US Fed rate hike likely in March 2016

After last week's NFP report, the US economy is one of the few capable of generating inflation due to a relative tight labor market. The recent developments globally pose greater risks to the economic recovery in Europe, Japan, Australia and Emerging Markets as the relative closeness of the US partially isolates it from a sharp deterioration. 

"Although in the US, the FOMC is expected to delay its first rate hike until the first quarter next year. As such, a more aggressive reaction is likely from some of the major central banks before year-end", says Barclays. 

A number of Fed speakers (including Chair Yellen) since September's FOMC indicated that their main scenario remains a rate hike by the end of this year (except for Chicago Fed President Evans). 

"Their discussions on the "global economic and financial developments" and debates are observed for delaying of the rate hike. The first rate hike is still expected in March 2016, but see risk of a December move if market volatility and uncertainty subside sooner", added Barclays.