Fitch: Colombian electricity sector - strong reserve margin to continue

Fitch Ratings expects the Colombian National Interconnected System (SIN) to continue to show a strong reserve margin. Total capacity is expected to increase to 18,253 megawatts (Mw) by 2018 assuring a sound buffer to meet power demand growth for the next five years.

While generation projects have experienced considerable delays, the system's reliability has not been undermined as current firm energy plus the expected additional firm energy is sufficient to meet future demand growth.

The main downside risks for 2015 include slower than expected GDP growth and the growth of challenging hydrology conditions, as climate unpredictability and limited watershed capacity determine the volatility exhibited by electricity prices in the SIN. However, potentially lower demand growth coupled with increasing generation capacity may put downward pressure on electricity spot prices during the year.