Flash July Italian HICP consumer prices to rise to 0.3% yoy

Italy's HICP inflation data for July is expected to release today. The economy posted 0.2% yoy inflation in June is expected to post higher inflation rate in July. Italian HICP inflation is expected to print at 0.3% yoy in July, slightly higher than in June (0.2% yoy). 

According to societe Generale, "We expect slightly higher gasoline prices alongside stable core metrics to drive marginal increase in consumer prices, and therefore, inflation rate will be 0.3%yoy in July."

Italian HICP inflation in June remained unchanged in June at 0.2% yoy as the energy component slowed slightly from -5.7% yoy in May to -5.8% yoy in June, cutting 1bp from the headline figures. Food prices remained unchanged at 1.5% yoy. 

The core component also remained unchanged at 0.7% yoy within which the services component remained unchanged and non-energy industrial goods inched up from 0.8% yoy to 0.9% yoy, adding 3bp, led by a rise in both durables and semi-durables. 

"Looking ahead, Italian HICP inflation is likely to average 0.4% in 2015 and 1.4% yoy in 2016. The core component should average 0.8% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016", said Societe Generale in a report on Friday.