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France economy moving towards balanced growth

Barclays Research notes forecasts a balanced growth in France economy due to following aspects:

  • France private consumption likely to lead GDP growth rate by 1.2% in 2015 and 1.5% in 2016, estimates Barclays. Further business confidence gains may suggest rebalancing of growth with increasing support coming from business investment.
  • Government measures (tax credit + responsibility pact) have improved NFCs' profit margins - although these are one-offs. Further labour market reforms are needed to realign real compensation with productivity.
  • France's growth needs a more structural footing. The risk is that 2017 elections take the spotlight and bring reform momentum to a standstill.
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