In January, France’s industrial production recovered, growing 1.3% m/m, while the figure for December was also upwardly revised. However, the recovery of January is likely to have reversed in February, according to Societe Generale.
“Our forecast is a 0.6% mom decrease (1.4% yoy)”, added Societe Generale.
Energy production is expected to be weaker, while consumer spending on energy is likely to have slowed by 1.2% m/m in February as compared with 3.4% m/m in January. Production in the energy sector is likely to have grown 1.6% m/m, as compared with January’s growth of 5%, noted Societe Generale. However, manufacturing is likely to be a drag in the overall number. It accounts for 85% of the total weighting.
“Surveys suggest there was weakness in the sector, and our forecast is a 0.9% decrease in output in for the manufacturing component. Overall, this forecast implies a carryover of around 0.4% qoq for Q1 16 industrial output”, says Societe Generale.
