French January INSEE business climate indicator likely to be strong

France's INSEE business climate indicator is expected to be 102 in February, unchanged from January. The details point towards upside risks. The construction indicator is expected to continue rebalancing. The indicator has rebounded by one point in each of the last three months to 93 after an extended period of weakness.

Post the Paris attacks in November, the retail trade indicator fell noticeably to 104 in December. However, there are signs of rebound since then and might rise in February. Unless the global economy is affected by a major financial shock, the business confidence is expected to be positively impacted by a combination of weaker euro, lower oil prices and further tax cuts.