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- AUD/NZD fails to hold break above 20-DMA, edges lower from highs at 1.0826 with an inverted hammer formation.
- Technical indicators on intraday charts have turned bearish. We see scope for further weakness.
- Kiwi remains buoyed by upbeat China Caxin PMI and New Zealand’s terms of trade which hit all-time high in Q4.
- China's Feb Caixin manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, came at 51.6 vs 51.3 expected and 51.5 last.
- Price action currently hovers around 1H 200-SMA support at 1.0732, decisive break below will see further weakness.
- Upside now capped below 1.0776 (21-EMA). Decisive break above could see test of 200-DMA.
- Violation at 200-DMA could take the pair higher.
Support levels - 1.07, 1.0654 (Feb 22 low), 1.0636 (channel base)
Resistance levels - 1.0757 (20-DMA), 1.0776 (21-EMA), 1.0847 (200-DMA)
Recommendation: Good to go short on decisive break below 1H 200-SMA. Target 1.07/ 1.0655/ 1.0640
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