• AUD/USD was on defensive on Thursday as rising energy costs from the Middle East war darkened the economic outlook>
• Rising energy costs are increasing economic risks, clouding the outlook. Despite exporting LNG and coal, Australia relies heavily on imports for petrol, fertiliser, and refined products.
• Elevated inflation had already led the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates to 4.10% across February and March.
• RBA Assistant Governor Kent warned a prolonged Gulf conflict could hurt growth, but said the Reserve Bank of Australia must curb rising inflation expectations.
•The hawkish tone led markets to nudge up the probability of another rate rise in May to 65%, while a move to 4.35% is fully priced by June.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7035 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7059(SMA 20).
• Support is seen at 0.6930 (50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6821(61.8%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.6960 with stop loss of 0.7050, and target price of 0.6880
