• AUD/USD firmed on Monday as U.S. dollar index eased from a four-month peak allowing the Australian dollar to recover modestly
• Market focus now turns to Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting, where investors broadly expect a 25 basis-point rate hike.
• The tone of the statement and forward guidance will be critical in determining whether policymakers signal further tightening or adopt a more cautious stance.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after the United States struck Iran’s key oil export hub at Kharg Island, a development that has raised fears of wider disruption in global energy supplies while prospects for a ceasefire remain uncertain.
• Oil markets remain the central focus, as the sharp rise in crude prices is fuelling concerns about renewed global inflation pressures, which in turn is pushing bond yields higher and keeping fixed-income markets under strain..
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.7071 (38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.7124 (March 3rd high).
• Support is seen at 0.6983 (61.8%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6968(Lower BB)
Recommendation: Good to buy around 0.7010 with stop loss of 0.6950, and target price of 0.7100
