• AUD/USD weakened on Friday after disappointing Australian employment data boosted expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
• Thursday’s data showed Australian employment increased by 14,900 in September, missing expectations for a 20,000 rise, following a revised decline of 11,800 in August.
• Australia’s unemployment rate increased to 4.5%, marking its highest point since November 2021 and topping the Reserve Bank of Australia’s peak forecast of 4.3%.
• Market pricing now shows an 85% probability that the RBA will lower the 3.60% cash rate by 25 basis points at its November 4 meeting, up from 50% earlier this week.
•Technical signals are strongly bearish as RSI is at 38, daily momentum studies 14and 21 DMAs are trending down.
• Immediate resistance is located at 0.6521 (50%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 0.6558 (SMA 20).
• Support is seen at 0.6460(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 0.6443 (Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 0.6490, with stop loss of 0.6600 and target price of 0.6430
