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The tumble in US yields has muted. The fall in USDJPY has also paused. Commodities are trading sideways. Asian equity markets trading has been quite for some time, or in the case of China, rallying. The big events of the week – the UK election, the ECB meeting, former FBI Director Comey’s testimony to Congress - all come in the next couple of days but today’s economic highlight may be the US consumer credit data unless the Chinese can get their FX reserve figures out soon.
The big market questions are unlikely to be answered today. Are Treasury yields heading back to ‘preTrump’ levels or merely probing the bottom of post-election rages? Are we in danger of renewed risk aversion as the political risks mount and the US economy stumbles?
One G10 currency that is in play but which we are not yet positioning for is GBP. The outlook section describes the election scenarios in more detail; suffice it to say, however, that we would be more comfortable selling GBP versus EUR on any relief rally should the Conservatives buck the trend in the opinion polls and secure a modestly enhanced majority at next Thursday’s general election as still seems probable.
Such a bounce would be unstainable in our opinion as:
1) The economy continues to slow;
2) Brexit risk intensifies in coming weeks as the negotiations with the EU are due to start in earnest; and
3) Despite what the market presumed when the election was called, our working assumption is that Theresa May will not dilute her objectives for Brexit even if she does secure a personal political mandate.
The markets would be wrong to welcome a renewed Conservative mandate just as it was wrong to celebrate David Cameron’s surprise election victory in the 2015 election (the market can be very myopic when it comes to assessing the implications of UK political developments).
Short NOKJPY: The trade was motivated as a bullish EURJPY proxy with the additional kicker that NOK might benefit from a credible OPEC deal given how undervalued it was on a model basis. OPEC delivered on expectations for a nine-month deal but this was not sufficient clearly to satisfy the weight of speculative positions in oil that had been established in the run-up to the meeting, hence the fairly violent setback to oil prices over the past week. The valuation argument for holding NOK remains valid.
