BTCUSD showed a minor pullback after the Fed monetary policy. It hit a high of $27486 and is currently trading around $26660.
US Fed kept its rate unchanged at 5.25% -5.50% as expected. In the new dot plot, 12 members voted for a 25 bpbs rate hike this year. Median GDP growth forecasts for 2023 increased to 2.1% from 1%. the hawkish surprise came in 2024. The central bank expects to cut rates twice next year from four rate cuts predicted in June 2023.
Major economic data for the week
Sep 21st, 2023, US Initial Jobless claims (12:30 pm GMT)
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
Existing Home Sales (2 pm GMT)
Factors to watch for Bitcoin price action-
US markets -
NASDAQ (positive correlation with BTC) - Bearish (neutral for BTC). The correlation between Bitcoin and NASDAQ diverged and 90 -the day correlation dropped to almost zero. Any weekly close below 14500 will drag the index to 13800.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep decreased to 93% from 94% a week ago.
Technicals-
Major support- $24750. Any break below will take it to the next level at $23300/$22000/$20000 if possible.
Bull case-
Primary supply zone -$32000. The breach above confirms minor bullishness. A jump to the next level of $36300/$40300/$41349 is possible.
Secondary barrier- $42600. A close above that barrier targets $48800/$50000.
It is good to buy on dips around $24000 with SL around $22000 for TP of $35000/$40000.
