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The escalation of US-China trade tensions has been a key driving force for the commodity market turbulence, and the shrinking volatility in the metals complex. As global trade tensions heat up, the potential impact could be two-fold.
On one side, our forecast of above trend global growth is being increasingly challenged as an escalation in global trade tensions will bring with it significant supply shock to the world economy, raising inflation and lowering growth.
The indirect effect of trade wars is the loss of confidence, resulting in corporate and household retrenchment that eventually leads to generalized tightening in financial conditions; we particularly see the start window for an intermediate Precious Metals rally open.
Please be noted that the 1m IV skews of XAUUSD (gold options) have been well balanced on either side and signify the hedgers’ interests on both OTM call and put strikes. While the combination of 1m bearish neutral remains intact with shrinking IVs are conducive for writing overpriced OTM calls. Using three-leg strategy would be a smart move to reduce hedging cost.
While it is reckoned that as per the OTC indications as shown above and the prevailing trend in bullion markets seem to be reasonably addressed by hedging participants, thus, we advocate below option strategy to keep uncertainty in spot gold prices on check. On trading perspective also, the strategy likely to fetch positive cashflows regardless of underlying price swings with more potential on downside and with cost effectiveness.
While the risk-averse traders who are dubious about upside move, accordingly, initiate longs in XAUUSD 1M at the money -0.49 delta put, and go long 1M at the money +0.51 delta call and simultaneously, Short 2w (1%) out of the money calls. Thereby, we favor bulls as we foresee more upside risks by keeping longer tenors on call leg.
Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly USD spot index is inching towards -68 levels (which is bearish), while articulating at (12:55 GMT). For more details on the index, please refer below weblink:
