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FxWirePro: Bullish possibility in WTI

Recent price action fuelled by optimism over Venezuela's effort to bring global oil producing countries together at same page - something needs to be done to stem decline oil prices.

Actions taken so far remain punitive. Russia and Saudi Arabia has agreed to freeze production at January level, which is already close to record high. Iran hasn't agreed to any production freeze but welcomed the step taken. Venezuela indicated that talks would continue and would try to bring others into some agreement.

Despite being punitive these are the best set of actions taken so far, in fact the only actions taken so far.

Trade idea -

  • First of all let's clear the air that we at FxWirePro fundamental team, remain committed to the downside in the medium term for oil, however that doesn't indicate that price can't correct in the shorter run given the size of downside movement since mid-2014.

  • One of our calculation matrix is indicating that WTI might correct towards $41/barrel, if bulls can hold onto recent low around $26/barrel. Given the risk reward call is very attractive.

  • However, caution is that our same matrix, despite its high success rate, also provided similar call in late January, but price broke into new low and call turned sour. So exercising caution would be important. A break below $28.2 is likely to lead to another souring.

WTI is currently trading at $30/barrel.

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