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EURUSD recovered slightly after a minor dip till 1.09571 and is struggling to break above 1.1000 level. The pair is hovering near 1.09900. The data that came the previous week was very weak and increased hopes of rate cut by the Fed in the next meeting. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the chance of keeping rates unchanged declined to 21.4% from 60% 1-week ago and the probability of 25 bps cut jumped to 78.6% from 39.6%.
US 10-year yield continues to trade lower and lost more than 20%. The spread between US 10- year and German bund has widened slightly from 209 bps to 212 bps.
On the higher side, any break above 1.1000 confirms major intraday trend reversal and a jump till 1.1040/1.1085 likely.
The near term support is around 1.09500 and any violation below will drag the pair till 1.0880/1.0835.
It is good to buy above 1.1000 with SL around 1.0950 for the TP of 1.10850.
