FxWirePro- CADJOY Trade Idea

CADJPY trades weak on strong yen. It hits an intraday low of 105.94 with current trading around 106.31.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) saw a significant drop after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada. Following this announcement on November 26, the CAD weakened against the U.S. dollar (USD), with the exchange rate spiking above 1.4178. However, the CAD began to recover shortly after due to positive economic indicators from Canada, including a slight rise in inflation and better-than-expected PMI data. Investor sentiment improved as traders realized that the tariffs might not be feasible, considering Canada's role as a major supplier to the U.S., leading to a more stable outlook for the CAD.

Technical Overview: Navigating Market Trends

From a technical perspective, CADJPY is currently trading below the 34- and 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart. The immediate near-term resistance sits at 107.60, and a breach above this level could see targets shift to 108/108.52/108.65, 109, 110, and ultimately 112. Conversely, immediate support is noted at 106.70; a breach below this support could lead to declines toward 106.20, and 104.85.

Market Indicators: A Mixed Trend Signal

Examining the 4-hour chart indicators: the CCI (14) is bearish, while the ADX indicates a  bearish position. Overall, the indicators reveal a mixed trend, suggesting caution in trading decisions.

Trading Strategy: Selling on Rallies

Considering the analysis above, it may be prudent to sell on rallies around 107.38-40 setting a stop loss (SL) around 108, with a take profit (TP) target adjusted to 104.90. This approach aligns with current market signals and technical analysis.