FxWirePro Call Review: Maintain short position in euro as Draghi signals gentle exit

In an article published in early October, named, “FxWirePro: Euro likely to decline towards 1.14 as bad news pile up”, available at http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Euro-likely-to-decline-towards-114-as-bad-news-pile-up-928832 we noted that bad news like German election outcome, which was Chancellor Angela Merkel’s worst performance ever and Catalonia crisis keep piling up while the market is focused on ECB monetary policy in October. We pointed, “So far, the only force that keeping the euro supported is the speculations over upcoming monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to announce a further tapering of its asset purchase program.  There is a high chance that this speculative force would fail to garner support for the single currency as ECB is more likely to be dovish than the market is currently anticipating.” And warned readers, “The single currency is currently trading at 1.175 against the dollar and we at FxWirePro expects further decline towards 1.14 as bad news for the Eurozone continue to pile up.”

Yesterday, just as we anticipated that the speculative force went ahead of itself. The European Central Bank (ECB) signalled a gentle exit to avoid a sudden disruption in the European bond market. In its statement, ECB said, “From January 2018 the net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of €30 billion until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.”

The euro declined sharply and is currently trading at 1.163 against the dollar and we expect the single currency to reach above mention area. The euro is likely to find crucial support around 1.14 area, however, momentum sell could push the pair below 1.14 and towards 1.136 area. As of now, we do not see a drop beyond that.

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