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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2030.95
Kijun-Sen- $2040.22
Gold pared some of its gains after hawkish comments from Fed members. Fed member Loretta Mester said that the central bank would lower rates "later this year". "It would be a mistake to move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation is on a sustainable and timely path back to 2%. The yellow metal hit a low of $2031.38 at the time of writing and is currently trading around $2031.36.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate cut in Mar increased to 78.50% from 58.80% a week ago.
US dollar index- Bullish. Minor support around 103.50/102.75. The near-term resistance is 104.60/106.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - bullish (negative for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bullish (negative for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2030, a break below targets of $2015/$2000/$1970/$1956. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2040 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2060/$2070/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2000 with SL around $1970 for TP of $2065/$2080.
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Silver-
Silver broke significant support at $22.24 (200-WEMA) and hovers around that level. It trades below 21 and 55- EMA in the weekly chart. Any weekly close below $22.23 confirms major bearishness, a dip to $20.68 is possible. The near-term resistance is around $22.50 and a break above confirms an intraday bullishness. A jump to $22.75/ $23/$23.35 is possible.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices recovered slightly after EIA revised US production data. US oil output will expand by 160000 bbls per day from 1.02 million bpd.
Major resistance- $75/$78. Significant support- $70/$68.
