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Gold -
Ichimoku Analysis (4 hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- $2041.27
Kijun-Sen- $2035.54
Gold trades higher after weak US economic data. US real GDP came at 4.9% for the third quarter, below the estimate of 5.2%. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 2000 last week vs an estimate of 214K. US Philadelphia manufacturing index declined to -10.5 in Dec vs. 3 expected. It hit a high of $2055 at the time of writing and is currently trading at around $2052.91
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 25 bpbs rate cut in Jan increased to 14.5% from 12.40% a day ago.
Economic calendar -
Dec 21st, 2023, US Durable goods orders (1:30 pm GMT)
US Core PCE index (1:30 pm GMT)
US dollar index- Bearish. Minor support around 101.75/101. The near-term resistance is 103.25/104.
Factors to watch for gold price action-
Global stock market- Bullish (negative for gold)
US dollar index - Bearish (positive for gold)
US10-year bond yield- Bearish (Positive for gold)
Technical:
The near–term support is around $2035, a break below targets of $2020/ $2000/$1970. The yellow metal faces minor resistance around $2060 and a breach above will take it to the next level of $2070/$2080/$2100.
It is good to buy on dips around $2030 with SL around $2018 for TP of $2100.
Silver-
Silver is showing bullish momentum and has broken this week's high of $24.50. The near-term resistance is around $24.61 (61.8% fib). Any convincing break above $24.60 confirms further bullishness, a jump to $25/$26. Minor support is $24/$23.60.
Crude oil-
WTI crude oil prices traded high for the second consecutive day on supply disruption in the Red Sea. German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd and Hong Kong's OOCL are planning to avoid the Suez Canal waterway and also support the oil price at lower levels. Major resistance- $75.35/80. Significant support- $72/$70.
