• EUR/AUD initially gained but gave up some ground as caution persisted around the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
• Investors grew increasingly concerned that the ongoing Middle East conflict could keep energy supplies disrupted for longer, driving up costs and fueling inflation.
• German business sentiment deteriorated more than expected in April as the Iran war threatens the recovery of Europe’s biggest economy.
• Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell 1.9 points to 84.4 in April 2026, its lowest
since May 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic and below expectations of 85.5
• The European Central Bank is expected to hold its deposit rate on April 30, but just over half of polled forecast a hike in June , as policymakers look to shield the euro zone economy from a war-induced energy shock.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.6486(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 1.6566 (SMA 20)
• Support is seen at 1.6298(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 1.6124(23.6%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.6400, with stop loss of 1.6500 and target price of 1.6360
