• EUR/CAD rose on Thursday as a two-week Middle East ceasefire boosted hopes of normal oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The euro has been under pressure since February, when the conflict began disrupting flows through the key chokepoint, reflecting Europe’s heavy reliance on oil imports.
• The fragile US–Iran truce remains conditional, with Tehran stressing that any easing of tensions comes with strict terms and that a full return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will take time.
• Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation in fighting if Tehran failed to comply.
• Despite the ceasefire, oil prices remain about 40% above pre-conflict levels, raising concerns that an inflationary surge will soon be reflected in economic data.
• Technical signals are bearish as RSI is heading down at 23, daily momentum studies 5, 9 and 1 DMAs are trending down.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.6222(38.2%fib), any close above will push the pair towards 1.6242 (Higher BB).
• Support is seen at 1.6103 (50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.6054 (April 8th low).
Recommendation: Good to buy around 1.6150 , with stop loss of 1.6080 and target price of 1.6220
