• EUR/CAD initially dipped but recovered some ground on Thursday as mixed Canadian retail sales data offset a jump in oil prices.
• Canadian retail sales rose 1% in August after a 0.7% drop in July, led by spending on cars, groceries, and clothing. September is estimated to have declined 0.7%.
• The price of oil, a key Canadian export, jumped 5.8% to $61.87 a barrel following U.S. sanctions on major Russian suppliers.
• The Bank of Canada is set to announce its interest rate decision on October 29, with money markets pricing in an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point cut.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.6270 (Oct 22nd high), any close above will push the pair towards 1.6314(38.2%fib).
• Support is seen at 1.6198(50%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.6175(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.6250 , with stop loss of 1.6350 and target price of 1.6160


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