• EUR/ NZD dipped on Monday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East rekindled inflation fears.
• A measure of euro area long-term inflation expectations jumped as high as 2.1217% from 2.0806% on Friday. It was last at 2.1067%.
• A renewed rise in inflation could pressure the European Central Bank to adjust rates, with money markets now pricing just an 8% chance of a cut by year-end, down from 40% on Friday..
• Investors will monitor Tuesday’s euro zone inflation data after German figures showed inflation in the bloc’s largest economy unexpectedly eased to 2% in February on lower energy costs..
• In January, euro zone inflation fell to 1.7% after hovering around the 2% target for much of 2025.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9681 (SMA20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9850(50%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 1.9598(38.2%fib) and break below could take the pair towards 1.9557(Lower BB).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.9680 with stop loss of 1.9750 and target price of 1.9600
