• EUR/NZD edged higher on Thursday as rising oil prices renewed investor concerns about inflation amid the Middle East conflict.
• Crude hit $100 a barrel before easing, as Iran vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters.
• If oil prices stay elevated, Europe highly reliant on oil imports could see inflation rise further, putting additional strain on its sluggish economic growth.
• Money markets now price in a European Central Bank rate hike by July, with an 87% chance of another increase by December—a sharp reversal from pre-conflict expectations, when a rate cut was anticipated.
• Immediate resistance is located at 1.9676(SMA 20), any close above will push the pair towards 1.9733 (38.2%fib).
• Immediate support is seen at 1.9563(Lower BB) and break below could take the pair towards 1.9479(23.6%fib).
Recommendation: Good to sell around 1.9700 with stop loss of 1.9780 and target price of 1.9630
