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On a broader perspective, long term trend has still been in the range of 1.05 to 1.16 levels that have been persisting since February 2015 (see rectangular areas in monthly charts).
After the German growth data surprised to the upside, upbeat flashes at 0.4% versus 0.3% has supported euro to some extent, the euro has begun the week with losing streaks up to the lows of 1.0955 levels, currently it has paired the recent losses by spiking up from last 3 days but it is not advisable to perceive this as an opportunity for longs.
Bulls, for now, have lined up as Euro retreated above 7DMA levels on Friday, many turned panicky yesterday after disappointing economic numbers in eurozone.
RSI (14) on both daily and monthly charts have been indecisive but are converging to the mild upswings (currently, daily RSI trending below at 51 levels while articulating).
While %K crossover on slow stochastic curves is evidenced with mild price spikes. Stochastic on monthly curve have been indecisive in the euro that has no significant momentum in ongoing rallies.
The pair has been lingering over 7EMAs that signifies the markets interest remain in sideways.
Trade tips:
On intraday speculative grounds, one can think one touch binary calls for targets of 30-40 pips.
Alternatively, on delivery front, at the current spot at 1.1211 with range bounded trend keeping in consideration, we would like to remain in a safe zone by achieving certain returns though shorting a strangle.
Short 1W OTM put (1% strike difference referring lower cap) and short OTM call simultaneously of the same expiry (1.5% strike referring upper cap) (preferably short term for maturity is desired).
Maximum returns for the short strangle is achieved when the EURUSD price on expiry is trading between the OTM strikes as both the instruments have to wipe off worthless. So that the options trader gets to keep the entire initial credit taken as profit.
