FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Euro in the bid,
- The single currency is moving higher today, riding on a weaker USD, as the dollar lost momentum after failing to secure a breakout of the key resistance last week.
- However, today’s move cannot be considered as the beginning of a new bull trend as the rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) is due this week on Wednesday. ECB ended its bond-purchase program last year and initially forecasted beginning of a rate hike cycle in 2019.
- However, looking into the recent economic slowdown, which has been particularly prominent in Germany, the central bank has curtailed its rate hike forecast and is not expected to deliver one in 2019.
- We expect the ECB to maintain its dovish stance at this week’s meeting.
- Moreover, the EUR/USD is trading within the down trending channel that has been in place since the beginning of the year. The chart clearly shows that EUR/USD is moving higher to once again test the channel ceiling.
Retail sentiment:
- The sentiment reports from IG Markets, which is a UK-based company providing trading in financial derivatives such as contracts for difference and financial spread betting, points to a bearish bias in the euro.
- IG markets’ retail positions data provide a glimpse to retail traders’ positions, which are largely used a contrarian indicator since retail positioning moves in opposite direction to market movements.
- As of today, according to data from IG markets, 64 percent of retail positions are bullish on GBP/USD, while only 36 percent are on the short side, giving bearish bias to EUR/USD.
