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EURGBP pared some of its gains after the UK jobs data. Intraday bias remains bearish as long as resistance 0.8380 holds. It hit a high of 0.83270 and is currently trading around 0.8300.
The IFO Business Climate Index for Germany fell to 84.7 in December 2024, down from 85.6 in November, marking the lowest level since May 2020. This decline shows worsening business sentiment and was below analysts' expectations. The manufacturing sector is particularly struggling, with companies unhappy about current conditions and having negative views of the future. Although the services sector improved slightly, expectations have turned more negative. This drop in the index highlights ongoing challenges and worries about the German economy as it faces uncertainty and weak investment.
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index rose to 15.7 points in December 2024, up from 7.4 points in November, showing a big improvement and exceeding expectations. This is the highest level for the index in four months, indicating a more positive outlook among financial experts about Germany's economy. The increase is driven by hopes for potential interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank and upcoming elections that may lead to investment-friendly policies. However, despite the positive future outlook, the Current Situation Index fell to -93.1, showing businesses are still worried about present economic conditions. Overall, while sentiment is improving, current conditions are still seen as negative.
Technical Analysis
The pair is currently trading below the 34- and 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
- Bearish Trend Confirmation: If the price stays below 0.8258, it will confirm an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8230/0.8190/ 0.8150 is likely.
- Near-Term Resistance: Current resistance is around 0.8300. If it breaks above, we could see movement toward 0.8320/0.8340/0.8360/0.8380/0.845/0.8500. The bearish outlook would be invalidated only if the price goes above 0.8500.
Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)
- CCI (50): Bearish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Trading Recommendation
It may be wise to sell on rallies around 0.8300, with a stop loss set at 0.8340 and a target price of 0.8190.
