FxWirePro- EURGBP Trade Idea

The pair is trading higher due to policy divergence between the ECB and BOE. Intraday bias remains bullish as long as resistance 0.8320 holds. It hit an intraday high of 0.84101 and is currently trading around 0.83977.

The ECB lowered important interest rates by 25 basis points, placing the deposit facility rate at 2.50%, and was expecting inflation to reach its 2% target in the medium term at 2.3% on average in 2025 and 1.9-2.0% in 2026-2027. At the same time, the ECB downgraded economic growth forecasts to 0.9% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 due to uncertainty of trade policy and poor investment. The ECB reiterated that the monetary policy is less tight but will be data-driven going forward, and market response will be cautious in the backdrop of wider economic and geopolitical issues.

Technical Analysis

The pair is currently trading above the 34- and below 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart.

• Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8340 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to  0.8320/0.8290/0.8220/0.8190 is likely.
• Near-Term Resistance: Current resistance is around 0.8420. Any violation above will push towards 0.8450/0.8470/0.8500/0.8580. The bearish outlook would be invalidated only if the price goes above 0.8500.

Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)

• CCI (50): Bullish
• Average Directional Movement Index: Bullish

Trading Recommendation

It is good to buy on dips around 0.8380  with a stop loss around 0.8340 for a target price of 0.8500.