The pair gained slightly on policy divergence between BOE and ECB. Intraday bias remains neutral as long as resistance 0.8450 holds. It hits an low of 0.83150 and is currently trading around 0.83547.
ECB policy-making board member Fabio Panetta, in a March 31, 2025, speech, warned against additional reductions in interest rates given increased uncertainty from U.S. trade policy and its possible effect on the economic stability of the euro area and its price stability objectives. Despite six rate cuts since last June, Panetta emphasized that the "fight against inflation cannot be declared won," and insisted on maintaining monetary policy centered on data. While stating that the crisis-ridden eurozone economy and geopolitical tensions are serving to contain inflation by deterring consumption and investment, he warned against unwinding the monetary policy too early as uncertainty mounts, reiterating his insistence to give more importance to the inflation projections than to estimates of theoretical neutral rates
Technical Analysis
The pair is currently trading below the 34- and below 55-EMA on the 4-hour chart.
- Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8300 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8260/0.8220/0.8190 is likely.
- Near-Term Resistance: Current resistance is around 0.8450. Any violation above will push towards 0.8470/0.8500/0.8580. The bearish outlook would be invalidated only if the price goes above 0.8500.
Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)
- CCI (50): Bearish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Trading Recommendation
It is good to stay away.
