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The EUR/JPY jumped more than 200 pips after hitting a multi-week low of 160.87. It hit an intraday high of 164.53 and is currently trading around 164.25. The bullish intraday outlook is maintained as long as the support of 161.80 holds.
On January 6, 2025, Germany published preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that showed a 0.4% increase for December 2024, higher than the expected 0.3%. The annual inflation rate rose to 2.6%, the highest in 11 months, up from 2.2% in November. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also increased to 3.1%, indicating ongoing price pressures. These stronger CPI figures pushed German government bond yields higher and also made the euro appreciate. The data is relevant to understanding the inflation trend in Germany and will inform decisions made by the European Central Bank.
Euro area annual HICP inflation has been reported at 2.4% in December 2024, higher from 2.2% from November, in line with projections. However, the core inflation that is without food and energy has remained the same at 2.7%. The highest increase was seen in services at 4.0%, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco at 2.7%. The increase in non-energy industrial goods has been minimal at 0.5%, while the energy prices gained slightly at 0.1%. This inflation data is crucial since it will have a bearing on the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank later this month.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is trading above the 55 EMA and 200-4H EMA and below 34 EMA as well as the 200 EMA in the 4-hour chart.
- Near-Term Resistance: Around 164.50– a breakout here could lead to targets at 165/166.65/167.
- Immediate Support: At 163.50 – if breached, the pair could fall to 162.80/162.45/161.75/160.80/160.
Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart): - CCI (50): Bullish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Overall, the indicators suggest a mixed trend.
Trading Recommendation:
It is good to buy on dips around 163.50, with a stop loss at 162.80 for a TP of 165.
