The EUR/JPY pared some of its gains after dismal German ZEW sentiment. It hit an intraday high of 162.79 and is currently trading around 161.74. The intraday outlook is bearish as long as the resistance 163.30 holds.
Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell to -14 in April 2025, much lower than 51.6 in March and well below forecasts, the biggest sentiment fall since the Ukraine invasion. The decline is due to increased uncertainty from unstable U.S. trade policy, specifically concerns over new two-way tariffs aimed at big export industries. The ZEW Current Situation Index also rose but remains solidly in negative territory. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell sharply as well, which indicated regional doom. In spite of that, economists do not predict another inflation surge, and this could provide the ECB room to think about further interest rate cuts.
Technical Analysis:
The EUR/JPY pair is trading above 34, below 55 EMA, and 200-4H EMA in the 15 min chart.
- Near-Term Resistance: Around 162 a breakout here could lead to targets at 162.80/163.30/164.20/165/166.65/167.
- Immediate Support: At 161.50 if breached, the pair could fall to 161/160.50/160/ 159.25/158.85/158.25.
Indicator Analysis 4-hour chart):
- CCI (50): Bullish
- Average Directional Movement Index: Neutral
Overall, the indicators suggest mixed trend
Trading Recommendation:
It is good to sell on rallies around 162.48-50 with stop loss at 163.30 for a TP of 158.50.
