Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.10161
Kijun-Sen- 1.09969
EURUSD pared some of its gains despite weak US inflation. It hits a high of 1.10649 yesterday and is currently trading around 1.09950.
US annual CPI rose 3.2% in Jul, compared to a forecast of 3.3%. The headline and core inflation m/m came at 0.20% in line with expectations. The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits surged to 248000 in the week ended Aug 5, the highest level since the week ended on Jul 1st.
Major economic data for the day
Aug 11th, 2023, US PPI m/m (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in Sep increased to 89% from 82% a day ago.
The US 10-year yield jumped sharply despite weak CPI data. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -74% from -110%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, below 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.0900 confirms further bearishness: a decline to 1.0830/1.0760 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.100. The breach above targets 1.1070/1.1100/1.1150.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Neutral
Directional movement index – neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.1018-20 with SL around 1.1070 for a TP of 1.0800.
