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Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.06450
Kijun-Sen- 1.05945
EURUSD is under pressure below 1.0550 on board-based US dollar buying. The US dollar index gained momentum on hawkish Fed bets and geopolitical tension. It hits a low of 1.05329 and is currently trading around 1.05504.
US Personal Consumption Expenditure YoY increases to 4.7% in Jan vs. forecast of 4.3%. US new home sales rose 7.2% to an annualized pace at 670000, above the estimate of 620000.
Major economic data today
US durable goods orders
US Pending home sales
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a 50 bpbs rate hike in Mar jumped to 27.7% from 18.1% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield recovered above 3.95% after a minor sell-off. The US 10 and 2-year spread widened to -89 basis points from -77% bpbs.
Technical:
The pair is trading below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any break below 1.0530 confirms intraday bearishness; a dip to 1.0500/1.0435 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0580. The breach above will push the pair to 1.0660/1.0700/1.08000/1.08850.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – Neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.06000 with SL around 1.0660 for a TP of 1.0480.
