U.S. consumer inflation accelerated in September, and post-release reports placed Bitcoin (BTC) below $82,000 as attention turned to rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27-28 meeting.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said its Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood 3.7% above its year-earlier level, compared with 3.4% through August. The index climbed 0.6% from August, following a 0.4% monthly increase. The BLS issued the figures at 8:30 a.m. ET Oct. 14. Economists surveyed by Reuters had projected 3.6% annual CPI, while CoinDesk reported forecasts of 0.2% for monthly core inflation and 2.5% for its annual rate.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% in September and 2.6% over the year, up from 2.4% in August. BLS data showed gasoline accounted for more than half of the monthly CPI increase. Its seasonally adjusted index rose 9.1%; the unadjusted measure increased 6.5%.
Bitcoin quotes after the release differed across published snapshots. CoinDesk cited a price of $82,800 at 8:47 a.m. ET. Cointelegraph later reported $81,926 on Bitstamp, while The Block said BTC was below $82,000 and down about 2% at 12:51 p.m. ET. CoinGape cited $82,641 on CoinMarketCap and a 0.58% decline over 24 hours. The reports reflected different times and trading venues; timing alone does not establish that the CPI release was the sole cause of the move.
Market reports also gave conflicting estimates for October rate policy. Cointelegraph put the implied chance of a rate increase at 53.7%, CoinGape cited 49.3%, and Decrypt reported a range of 44% to 49%. Reuters, meanwhile, reported roughly 49% odds of holding rates, up from 19% before the release. These were outlet-reported market snapshots, not a single consistent estimate. CME says FedWatch probabilities are implied by 30-day federal funds futures prices and do not represent a Fed decision.
The Fed raised its target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept. 16. Its longer-run inflation goal is 2%, measured by the annual change in the personal consumption expenditures price index. Thomas Wu, chief financial officer of bitcoin-backed lender Ledn, told The Block the core reading “puts an October hike back on the table.”
The BLS scheduled its September Producer Price Index release for Oct. 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
