FxWirePro- EURUSD Daily Outlook

Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)

  Tenken-Sen- 1.10433

  Kijun-Sen- 1.10169

 EURUSD gained more than 100 pips after Fed monetary policy. The central bank hiked rates by 25 bpbs to 5-5.25%, the highest since mid-2007. "The committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy," the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday. The pair hits an intraday high of 1.10920 and currently trading around 1.108360.

The US economy has added 296000 private sector jobs in Apr compared to a forecast of 148000. S&P Global  US services PMI came at 53.60 vs an estimate of 53.70.

Major economic data

May 4th, 2023  ECB Main refinancing rate (12:15 pm GMT)   

                          US Initial jobless claims (12:30 pm GMT)

According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in June increased to 88.60% from 63.80% a week ago.

 The US 10-year yield declined more than 3% after a less hawkish rate hike by Fed. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -44% from -108%.

The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and above long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart.  Any indicative break above 1.1100 confirms bullishness; a jump to 1.1165/1.12000 is possible. The near-term support is around 1.1030. The breach below targets 1.1000/1.0900/1.08300.

 Indicator (4-hour chart)

  CCI –Bullish

  Directional movement index – neutral

It is good to buy on dips around 1.0958-60 with SL around 1.0900 for a TP of 1.1100.