Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.10390
Kijun-Sen- 1.10169
EURUSD pared most of its gains after the ECB policy. The central bank hiked rates by 25 bpbs to 3.75%, as expected. ECB President Lagarde said that "We are not pausing. That's very clear… We know we have more ground to cover." The pair hits an intraday low of 1.10244 and currently trading around 1.10273.
The number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits rose by 13000 to 242000 in the week ending Apr 29th, compared to a forecast of 240000.
Major economic data
May 5th, 2023 US Non-farm payroll (12:30 pm GMT)
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in June increased to 95.6% from 62.20% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield jumped more than 2.5% ahead of US nonfarm payroll. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -41% from -108%.
The pair trades above short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and above long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break above 1.1100 confirms bullishness; a jump to 1.1165/1.12000 is possible. The near-term support is around 1.100. The breach below targets 1.0900/1.08300.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI –Bullish
Directional movement index – neutral
It is good to buy on dips around 1.0958-60 with SL around 1.0900 for a TP of 1.1100.
