Ichimoku analysis (4-hour chart)
Tenken-Sen- 1.08798
Kijun-Sen- 1.09213
EURUSD pared some of its gains despite improvement in market sentiment. US President Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy hopeful of a US debt ceiling deal this week. It hits a low of 1.08314 and is currently trading around 1.08337.
German ZEW economic sentiment declines to -10.70 in May, compared to a forecast of -5.40. US retail sales rose 0.40% in Apr, compared to a forecast of 0.80%. Core retail sales excluding autos and gasoline increased by 0.60%.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, the probability of a no-rate hike in June increased to 83.2% from 78.8% a week ago.
The US 10-year yield trading in a narrow range ahead of US retail sales. The US 10 and 2-year spread narrowed to -50.5% from -108%.
The pair trades below short-term 21 EMA, 55 EMA, and long-term (200-EMA) in the 4-hour chart. Any indicative break below 1.08300 confirms intraday bearishness; a dip to 1.0800/1.0740 is possible. The near-term resistance is around 1.0900. The breach above targets 1.09300/1.1000.
Indicator (4-hour chart)
CCI – Bearish
Directional movement index – neutral
It is good to sell on rallies around 1.0868-70 with SL around 1.0900 for a TP of 1.0750.
